By Frank Dohmen
Green-energy provider Lichtblick and German automaker Volkswagen are joining forces and promising to stir up the energy market with an unusual plan. Instead of relying on massive energy facilities, the average consumer may soon have a miniature power station in their basement.
Chief executives of Germany's major energy suppliers usually don't have much time for their junior counterpart, Lichtblick. The Hamburg-based green-electricity provider's half a million customers may be "impressive," they say, but Lichtblick works in a niche market and is no competition for the larger companies in the industry.
But things may be about to change. In the next couple of days, the relatively small company is due to reveal a new business model that could shake up the energy market quite a bit -- and not only in Germany. So, despite the fact that they currently have large power plants and considerable power over the market, things may soon turn a little less comfortable for energy giants like E.on and RWE.
Lichtblick -- the name translates as "glimmer of hope" -- is no longer content with distributing eco-friendly gas and electricity. Ten years after entering the market, the group wants to take a shot at the electricity-generation business as well -- and to do so while collaborating with a unusual partner on a completely new idea.
Unlike Germany's well-established energy giants, the Hamburg-based company isn't planning to build a few colossal wind farms or solar-panel systems. Instead, it wants hundreds of thousands of buildings and private households to get their own highly efficient mini "home power stations."
Mini Power Stations
The ambitious new project could be worth billions of euros and generate enough electricity to replace up to two nuclear power stations or even coal-fired power plants in the near future. The technology required to put this plan into practice is highly complex, but -- depending on demand and the market situation -- the new setup could network 1,000, 10,000 or even 100,000 small natural-gas-powered thermal power stations and, in effect, instantly create a virtual large one.
A giant quantity of electricity could be generated by such a system. Channelled straight from the basements of individual houses, where Lichtblick plans on installing the mini power stations, it could then be fed into the public powergrid. Likewise, the mini stations could also provide a source of cheap thermal energy and warm water for each household.
It may all still sound like a fairy tale, but developers at Lichtblick have actually been testing the system as part of a field trial in Hamburg. What's more, now one renowned company has shown an interest in becoming a partner in this pilot project: the Wolfsburg-based motor- and auto-manufacturing giant, Volkswagen.
For many years, Volkswagen engineers based in the central German town of Salzgitter have been tinkering with different ways to build a highly efficient thermal power plant. And there are good reasons why VW is looking into the field. "Much of what you need to manufacture a mini powerplant" is already found in ultra-modern automobiles, says Rudolf Krebs, a director of Volkswagen's powertrain-development division.
'A Real Revolution'
The centerpiece of the new mini powerplant system is a natural-gas-powered engine used in some Volkswagen Golf models. Thanks to the engine's highly intelligent design -- and the fact that the heat it produces can be directly used to heat the house -- the efficiency factor of the Volkswagen mini thermal powerplant lies at around 94 percent.
To understand how that is an improvement over the current situation, you first have to know that the efficiency factor of your average nuclear power plant is only between 30 percent and 40 percent and that even modern coal- and gas-fired powerplants only reach an efficiency factor of between 40 percent and 60 percent.
Volkswagen engineers have long suspected that the mini thermal stations could prove incredibly promising. Until now, though, they just haven't had the technical know-how and familiarity with the electricity industry they needed. Nor did they have a concrete idea of how the relatively expensive (€20,000 or $29,000) mini thermal plants would be able to survive in a competitive energy market.
But now these problems are being solved by Lichtblick. As Werner Neubauer, a member of VW's executive board, told SPIEGEL, the company's proposal was so convincing that its managerial board agreed to collaborate with Lichtblick on the project almost immediately.
This week, Volkswagen and Lichtblick plan to sign a contract giving the auto manufacturer exclusive global rights to produce the mini thermal plants. If all goes according to plan, Volkswagen's auto-production facilities in Salzgitter will be able to churn out 10,000 mini powerplants every year.
"This will be a real revolution for the electricity market," says Lichtblick CEO Christian Friege. But there is still one question that remains unanswered: Will there be enough customers willing to give up space in their basement and foot the bill for their very own "home power station?"
A Breakthrough for Eco-Friendly Energy
The new concept may prove particularly appealing to homebuilder associations and homeowners who may already have toyed with the idea of replacing their aging central-heating systems. For an all-inclusive fee of around €5,000, Lichtblick technicians promise to tear out and dispose of any old system and replace it with a new Volkswagen mini thermal powerhouse. Repair and maintenance costs from then on are covered by the company, and the customer only has to pay for the energy actually used -- a sum significantly lower (or so Lichtblick claims) than the cost of heating with gas.
Under this arrangement, Lichtblick is effectively paying the homeowner rent for being able to use their basement, while homeowners benefit from getting cheap thermal energy. As an added incentive, homeowners will also receive a bonus at the end of the year based on the revenue the system generates for the companies. After all, the system will not only generate thermal power, but also electricity, which it can sell for a tidy profit.
Thanks to a carefully devised monitoring system centrally linking the system via the Internet, the network will be set up to optimize its functioning. According to this system, water will be heated up more often in the homeowners' basements when there is more demand for electricity on the energy market. This would happen, for example, when there's a change in the weather and thousands of windmills can simply not provide enough energy to meet a sudden surge in demand. In such cases, as Lichtblick executive Gero Lücking explains, Lichtblick will be able to react very quickly and channel the missing amount of energy into the national powergrid.
Such an arrangement would be a breakthrough for eco-friendly energy as well. Owing to the fast reaction rate of the system of small powerplants, a lot more sustainable energy could be used than has been the case until now.
More-established energy suppliers, on the other hand, will not benefit from the new arrangement and might soon feel its sting. Their multi-billion-euro back-up power plants, which the energy companies currently use to compensate for fluctuations in the electricity supply, making a nice profit in the process, may soon be displaced by the cheaper and more flexible VW power stations.
And then it might just be time for the chief executives of Germany's major energy suppliers to give their little Hamburg-based competitor a bit more respect, instead of the occasional condescending glance.
URL:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,647435,00.html
RELATED SPIEGEL ONLINE LINKS:
Leaders In Alternative Energy: Germany Turns On World's Biggest Solar Power Project (08/20/2009)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,643961,00.html
The World From Berlin: New Energy Projects 'Not a Magic Bullet' (07/14/2009)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,636090,00.html
Going Greener?: German Energy Roadmap Steers Towards Renewables (02/13/2009)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,607412,00.html
SPIEGEL 360: Our Full Coverage of Energy and Natural Resources
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,k-6944,00.html
© DER SPIEGEL 37/2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Monday, September 7, 2009
Carrots are better than sticks ~ science news
Carrots are better than sticks for building human cooperation
Published: Thursday, September 3, 2009 - 13:44 in Psychology & Sociology
Rewards go further than punishment in building human cooperation and benefiting the common good, according to research published this week in the journal Science by researchers at Harvard University and the Stockholm School of Economics. While previous studies have focused almost exclusively on punishment for promoting public cooperation, here rewards are shown to be much more successful. The new study, which finds that rewards robustly build compliance and cooperation, could help in developing solutions for thorny problems requiring the cooperation of large numbers of people to achieve a greater good. It was conducted using a computer-based public goods game, a classic experiment for measuring collective action in a laboratory setting. The study contradicts previous research, which has stated that peer punishment is the only effective mechanism for promoting public cooperation.
Lead author David G. Rand, a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard's Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, says the work has implications far beyond subjects' behavior in a computer game.
"All of us engage in public goods games, on both large and small scales," Rand says. "Climate change is a huge public goods game: If each person does his or her part to conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions, it benefits us all. On a more local level, public goods games include volunteering on school boards, helping to maintain public facilities in your community, or cleaning up after yourself and doing your share of work at the office."
"In these types of domains, where people interact repeatedly with each other to solve a group social dilemma, our work suggests that rewards result in better outcomes than punishment," Rand says. "Rewards can change individuals' behavior and encourage cooperation without the destructive negative consequences that come with punishment."
Rand and his colleagues, headed by Martin A. Nowak of Harvard's Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, examined cooperation among 192 participants in a public goods game probing the fundamental tension between the interests of an individual and a group.
Over 50 rounds of interaction, each of four participants in a group would decide how much to contribute toward a common pool that benefited all four equally. Each participant was then able -- at a cost to him or herself -- to either reward or punish each of the three other subjects for their contributions to the group, or lack thereof.
As in real life, Rand says, study subjects tend to resent "free riders" who fail to contribute to a group yet reap the benefits of membership in it.
"But despite this anger at free riders, rewarding good behavior is as effective as punishing bad behavior for maintaining public cooperation and leads to better outcomes for the group," Rand says. "When both options are available, reward leads to increased contributions and payoff for the group, while punishment has no effect on contributions and leads to lower payoff for the group."
Previous research has suggested that punishment can compel cooperation in anonymous two-time interactions where individuals need not worry about reputation or retaliation -- a scenario Rand, Nowak, and colleagues find unrealistic, since most of our real-life interactions are recurring, with our reputations always at stake.
"Sometimes it is argued that it is easier to punish people than to reward them," the researchers write. "We think this is not the case. Life is full of … situations where we can help others. These sorts of productive interactions are the building blocks of our society and should not be disregarded."
http://esciencenews.com/articles/2009/09/03/carrots.are.better.sticks.building.human.cooperation
Published: Thursday, September 3, 2009 - 13:44 in Psychology & Sociology
Rewards go further than punishment in building human cooperation and benefiting the common good, according to research published this week in the journal Science by researchers at Harvard University and the Stockholm School of Economics. While previous studies have focused almost exclusively on punishment for promoting public cooperation, here rewards are shown to be much more successful. The new study, which finds that rewards robustly build compliance and cooperation, could help in developing solutions for thorny problems requiring the cooperation of large numbers of people to achieve a greater good. It was conducted using a computer-based public goods game, a classic experiment for measuring collective action in a laboratory setting. The study contradicts previous research, which has stated that peer punishment is the only effective mechanism for promoting public cooperation.
Lead author David G. Rand, a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard's Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, says the work has implications far beyond subjects' behavior in a computer game.
"All of us engage in public goods games, on both large and small scales," Rand says. "Climate change is a huge public goods game: If each person does his or her part to conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions, it benefits us all. On a more local level, public goods games include volunteering on school boards, helping to maintain public facilities in your community, or cleaning up after yourself and doing your share of work at the office."
"In these types of domains, where people interact repeatedly with each other to solve a group social dilemma, our work suggests that rewards result in better outcomes than punishment," Rand says. "Rewards can change individuals' behavior and encourage cooperation without the destructive negative consequences that come with punishment."
Rand and his colleagues, headed by Martin A. Nowak of Harvard's Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, examined cooperation among 192 participants in a public goods game probing the fundamental tension between the interests of an individual and a group.
Over 50 rounds of interaction, each of four participants in a group would decide how much to contribute toward a common pool that benefited all four equally. Each participant was then able -- at a cost to him or herself -- to either reward or punish each of the three other subjects for their contributions to the group, or lack thereof.
As in real life, Rand says, study subjects tend to resent "free riders" who fail to contribute to a group yet reap the benefits of membership in it.
"But despite this anger at free riders, rewarding good behavior is as effective as punishing bad behavior for maintaining public cooperation and leads to better outcomes for the group," Rand says. "When both options are available, reward leads to increased contributions and payoff for the group, while punishment has no effect on contributions and leads to lower payoff for the group."
Previous research has suggested that punishment can compel cooperation in anonymous two-time interactions where individuals need not worry about reputation or retaliation -- a scenario Rand, Nowak, and colleagues find unrealistic, since most of our real-life interactions are recurring, with our reputations always at stake.
"Sometimes it is argued that it is easier to punish people than to reward them," the researchers write. "We think this is not the case. Life is full of … situations where we can help others. These sorts of productive interactions are the building blocks of our society and should not be disregarded."
http://esciencenews.com/articles/2009/09/03/carrots.are.better.sticks.building.human.cooperation
Solar Hot Water big in China
latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fi-china-solar6-2009sep06,0,7213756.story
latimes.com
China, green? In the case of solar water heating, yes
In a nation known more for its belching smokestacks, solar water heaters are on nearly every roof in some cities. Manufacturers are eyeing foreign markets, including Southern California.
By David Pierson
September 6, 2009
Reporting from Rizhao, China
Before her family bought a solar water heater, Liu Yan would bathe the way many working-class Chinese have for generations: boil water, dampen a rag and wipe away the dirt.
Today, the 40-year-old mother and her family shower every day and wash their dishes with hot water. The stainless steel heater affixed to her red-tiled roof cost about $220.
The device has become a symbol of China's rising standard of living and its leap into the era of clean energy.
In the seaside city of 2.8 million where Liu lives in Shandong province, 99% of households use solar water heaters. The mattress-sized contraptions dominate Rizhao's skyline, resting haphazardly on almost every residential rooftop.
In the global race to develop green technology and stem climate change, China has quickly become a leading producer of solar panels and wind turbines. It also dominates the lesser-known technology of solar water heaters.
Using principles of solar heating more than a century old, the humble, low-cost devices consist of an angled row of cola-colored glass tubes that absorb heat from the sun. The most common models fill the tubes with cold water. As it heats, the water rises into an insulated tank where it can remain hot for days.
The devices have improved so much over the years that some don't need direct sunlight -- all the more valuable in China's often hazy and smoggy cities. Newer models have electrical heaters inside the water tanks that switch on if the water gets too cold on frigid days.
Popular in some parts of the United States around the turn of the 20th century before being made obsolete by cheap natural gas, solar heaters are now hailed as one of China's greatest environmental success stories. More than 30 million homes have the devices, accounting for two-thirds of the world's solar water heating energy.
Manufacturers are eyeing foreign markets, including customers in Southern California.
"China absolutely dominates the global market and they've done it relatively quietly and without a lot of fanfare," said Christopher Flavin, president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute. "It's an interesting example of their ability to take technology that was developed elsewhere and adapt it to their market on a scale no one had conceived of."
The widespread development of solar heaters in China can appear paradoxical in a country that leads the world in carbon dioxide emissions and where two-thirds of the rivers and lakes are contaminated.
Such is the nature of China's push to tackle climate change. In this rapidly developing economy, some of the nation's biggest polluters reside alongside the biggest renewable energy projects.
Scenes like Rizhao's crowded, energy-efficient rooftops are repeated all over China, often in the shadows of carbon spewing smokestacks and noxious chemical plants. Rizhao is one of a small but growing number of Chinese cities requiring solar heaters to be installed or subsidized.
"There are two different stories in China," said Barbara Finamore, director of the National Resources Defense Council's China Program. "There's dramatic progress. There's no denying that. At the same time, they're still building, on average, a new coal-fired plant every week."
The heating of water accounts for a quarter of a typical building's energy usage. The Chinese solar heaters are estimated to have prevented more than 20 million tons of carbon dioxide that would have been emitted annually using electrical units.
The heaters will be much needed if Beijing is to meet its goal of reducing its reliance on coal, which supplies 80% of the country's energy. The central government aims to meet 15% of its energy needs through renewable sources by 2020. Beijing hopes to triple its solar heater capacity by the same year, according to Greenpeace China.
The technology's gains here lie in its affordability, the dearth of residential natural gas service and the modest expectations of consumers, many of whom had never enjoyed hot water at home before. The starting price for one of the clunky devices is around $220, about the same as an electric heater in China. In the United States, where labor costs are higher and systems tend to be larger and more elaborate, solar water heaters can easily cost $1,500 or more.
"The key to the success in China is that the low price enables people to have an instantaneous payback," said John Perlin, a solar energy historian and author of "From Space to Earth: The Story of Solar Electricity."
A thriving, hyper-competitive industry of 5,000 manufacturers has grown up in the last decade or more, driving costs down and widening the range of quality.
"The market is huge, but the competition is fearsome," said Bi Bangquan, president of Ri- zhao Gold Giant Solar Power, one of 150 manufacturers based in the city.
To find new customers, he's turned to rural areas. That can mean sending sales teams to villages, where stages are erected for singing and dancing performers to promote the virtues of his solar heaters.
Each manufacturer touts its product's ability to heat water within hours and insulate that heat for days.
"I guarantee my water's hot enough to take the feathers off a chicken," said one of Bi's rivals, Zhang Shouqin, founder of Rizhao Qin Naier Solar Power.
Some Chinese companies hoping to boost sales are looking to other countries, including the United States. Only about 1% of the world's solar water heating energy is produced in the U.S., but climate change is spurring interest in the technology. The California Public Utilities Commission has recommended the establishment of a $300-million incentive program to encourage homeowners to install units.
Bi dreams of exporting, but he's concerned that his heaters would be no match for Western habits. A typical American uses 100 gallons of water daily, both hot and cold, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In China, an urban resident uses half that, and a rural dweller about a fifth.
Many of the older or cheaper Chinese models are far from perfect, lacking auxiliary heating elements to warm the water on cloudy days.
"I have to look outside and make sure it's been sunny before I decide to take a shower," said a 53-year-old retiree in Rizhao who gave only his surname, Xiao. "Otherwise you'll get a cold surprise."
About 225 miles northwest of Rizhao is the headquarters of Himin Solar Energy Group, China's largest and most advanced solar water heater maker, which recently garnered a $50-million investment from Goldman Sachs.
Himin's influence runs deep in its hometown, Dezhou. The streets of the city of 5.5 million are illuminated with solar-powered lights; 90% of its households have solar water heaters.
Company founder Huang Ming is building an expansive residential development in Dezhou called Utopia Garden to showcase the potential of solar technology. Scheduled for completion in 2013, the row of high-rise buildings will be crowned with a ribbon of solar thermal tubing and photovoltaic panels that will supply much of the complex's energy needs.
"We're only at the bottom of a big mountain," Huang said. Solar "can push a change in lifestyle."
david.pierson@latimes.com
Nicole Liu in The Times' Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times
latimes.com
China, green? In the case of solar water heating, yes
In a nation known more for its belching smokestacks, solar water heaters are on nearly every roof in some cities. Manufacturers are eyeing foreign markets, including Southern California.
By David Pierson
September 6, 2009
Reporting from Rizhao, China
Before her family bought a solar water heater, Liu Yan would bathe the way many working-class Chinese have for generations: boil water, dampen a rag and wipe away the dirt.
Today, the 40-year-old mother and her family shower every day and wash their dishes with hot water. The stainless steel heater affixed to her red-tiled roof cost about $220.
The device has become a symbol of China's rising standard of living and its leap into the era of clean energy.
In the seaside city of 2.8 million where Liu lives in Shandong province, 99% of households use solar water heaters. The mattress-sized contraptions dominate Rizhao's skyline, resting haphazardly on almost every residential rooftop.
In the global race to develop green technology and stem climate change, China has quickly become a leading producer of solar panels and wind turbines. It also dominates the lesser-known technology of solar water heaters.
Using principles of solar heating more than a century old, the humble, low-cost devices consist of an angled row of cola-colored glass tubes that absorb heat from the sun. The most common models fill the tubes with cold water. As it heats, the water rises into an insulated tank where it can remain hot for days.
The devices have improved so much over the years that some don't need direct sunlight -- all the more valuable in China's often hazy and smoggy cities. Newer models have electrical heaters inside the water tanks that switch on if the water gets too cold on frigid days.
Popular in some parts of the United States around the turn of the 20th century before being made obsolete by cheap natural gas, solar heaters are now hailed as one of China's greatest environmental success stories. More than 30 million homes have the devices, accounting for two-thirds of the world's solar water heating energy.
Manufacturers are eyeing foreign markets, including customers in Southern California.
"China absolutely dominates the global market and they've done it relatively quietly and without a lot of fanfare," said Christopher Flavin, president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute. "It's an interesting example of their ability to take technology that was developed elsewhere and adapt it to their market on a scale no one had conceived of."
The widespread development of solar heaters in China can appear paradoxical in a country that leads the world in carbon dioxide emissions and where two-thirds of the rivers and lakes are contaminated.
Such is the nature of China's push to tackle climate change. In this rapidly developing economy, some of the nation's biggest polluters reside alongside the biggest renewable energy projects.
Scenes like Rizhao's crowded, energy-efficient rooftops are repeated all over China, often in the shadows of carbon spewing smokestacks and noxious chemical plants. Rizhao is one of a small but growing number of Chinese cities requiring solar heaters to be installed or subsidized.
"There are two different stories in China," said Barbara Finamore, director of the National Resources Defense Council's China Program. "There's dramatic progress. There's no denying that. At the same time, they're still building, on average, a new coal-fired plant every week."
The heating of water accounts for a quarter of a typical building's energy usage. The Chinese solar heaters are estimated to have prevented more than 20 million tons of carbon dioxide that would have been emitted annually using electrical units.
The heaters will be much needed if Beijing is to meet its goal of reducing its reliance on coal, which supplies 80% of the country's energy. The central government aims to meet 15% of its energy needs through renewable sources by 2020. Beijing hopes to triple its solar heater capacity by the same year, according to Greenpeace China.
The technology's gains here lie in its affordability, the dearth of residential natural gas service and the modest expectations of consumers, many of whom had never enjoyed hot water at home before. The starting price for one of the clunky devices is around $220, about the same as an electric heater in China. In the United States, where labor costs are higher and systems tend to be larger and more elaborate, solar water heaters can easily cost $1,500 or more.
"The key to the success in China is that the low price enables people to have an instantaneous payback," said John Perlin, a solar energy historian and author of "From Space to Earth: The Story of Solar Electricity."
A thriving, hyper-competitive industry of 5,000 manufacturers has grown up in the last decade or more, driving costs down and widening the range of quality.
"The market is huge, but the competition is fearsome," said Bi Bangquan, president of Ri- zhao Gold Giant Solar Power, one of 150 manufacturers based in the city.
To find new customers, he's turned to rural areas. That can mean sending sales teams to villages, where stages are erected for singing and dancing performers to promote the virtues of his solar heaters.
Each manufacturer touts its product's ability to heat water within hours and insulate that heat for days.
"I guarantee my water's hot enough to take the feathers off a chicken," said one of Bi's rivals, Zhang Shouqin, founder of Rizhao Qin Naier Solar Power.
Some Chinese companies hoping to boost sales are looking to other countries, including the United States. Only about 1% of the world's solar water heating energy is produced in the U.S., but climate change is spurring interest in the technology. The California Public Utilities Commission has recommended the establishment of a $300-million incentive program to encourage homeowners to install units.
Bi dreams of exporting, but he's concerned that his heaters would be no match for Western habits. A typical American uses 100 gallons of water daily, both hot and cold, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In China, an urban resident uses half that, and a rural dweller about a fifth.
Many of the older or cheaper Chinese models are far from perfect, lacking auxiliary heating elements to warm the water on cloudy days.
"I have to look outside and make sure it's been sunny before I decide to take a shower," said a 53-year-old retiree in Rizhao who gave only his surname, Xiao. "Otherwise you'll get a cold surprise."
About 225 miles northwest of Rizhao is the headquarters of Himin Solar Energy Group, China's largest and most advanced solar water heater maker, which recently garnered a $50-million investment from Goldman Sachs.
Himin's influence runs deep in its hometown, Dezhou. The streets of the city of 5.5 million are illuminated with solar-powered lights; 90% of its households have solar water heaters.
Company founder Huang Ming is building an expansive residential development in Dezhou called Utopia Garden to showcase the potential of solar technology. Scheduled for completion in 2013, the row of high-rise buildings will be crowned with a ribbon of solar thermal tubing and photovoltaic panels that will supply much of the complex's energy needs.
"We're only at the bottom of a big mountain," Huang said. Solar "can push a change in lifestyle."
david.pierson@latimes.com
Nicole Liu in The Times' Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Artic warmer than for 2000 years...
The Arctic is now warmer than at any time during the last 2,000 years, according to a major new study.
Temperatures around the North Pole have dramatically increased in the last 50 years - reversing a long-term natural cooling trend, scientists say.
The study, based on an analysis of ice cores, lake sediments and tree rings, provides compelling evidence that greenhouse gases released since the start of the industrial revolution are triggering global warming, the researchers say.
Researchers secure a floating platform in Alaska to take sediment cores. They reported finding yet more proof that global warming was a dangerous reality
Lead author Darrell Kaufman of Northern Arizona University said: 'Scientists have known for a while that the current period of warming was preceded by a long-term cooling trend. But our reconstruction quantifies the cooling with greater certainty than before.'
The research - published in the journal Science - comes from a team of British and American geologists who tracked summer Arctic temperatures to the time of the Romans by studying natural signals in the landscape.
Their reconstruction found that the Arctic got cooler in the summer months between 1AD and 1900, thanks to a natural 'wobble' in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
The wobble slowly increased the distance between the Earth and the Sun during the Arctic summer, reducing summer temperatures by around 0.2C every thousand years and causing the 'Little Ice Age' that led to freezing winters in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries.
But during the 20th century, temperatures began to rise dramatically - even though the amount of sunlight reaching the Arctic during the summer was continuing to fall.
The decade between 1999 to 2008 was the warmest in the last 2,000 years, the research found.
The researchers say the Arctic should still be cooling because the Earth is now about 600,000 miles farther away from the Sun than it was in 1BC.
They estimate that by the middle of the century, summer Arctic temperatures were about 0.7C higher than would have been expected if the cooling trend had continued.
Today, temperatures are around 1.4C higher than they should be, the authors say.
Dr David Schneider, from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, said: 'This result is particularly important because the Arctic, perhaps more than any other region on Earth, is facing dramatic impacts from climate change.
'This study provides us with a long-term record that reveals how greenhouse gases from human activities are overwhelming the Arctic's natural climate system.
'Greenhouse gases are overtaking a natural cycle.'
The temperature reconstruction looked at the amount of algae in sediments in Arctic lakes - which reflect the length of the growing season - and the thickness of annually deposited layers of sediment which increase during warmer summers when deposits from glacial melt water increases.
They also looked at records of tree rings. The amount of new growth of a tree each year is strongly linked to the temperature of the growing season.
The Arctic appears to be particularly vulnerable to changes to the Earth's climate.
Previous research has shown that Arctic temperatures rose three times faster during the 20th century than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
Some experts have predicted that the Arctic could be free from sea ice in the winter within the next few decades if the temperatures continue to rise
Temperatures around the North Pole have dramatically increased in the last 50 years - reversing a long-term natural cooling trend, scientists say.
The study, based on an analysis of ice cores, lake sediments and tree rings, provides compelling evidence that greenhouse gases released since the start of the industrial revolution are triggering global warming, the researchers say.
Researchers secure a floating platform in Alaska to take sediment cores. They reported finding yet more proof that global warming was a dangerous reality
Lead author Darrell Kaufman of Northern Arizona University said: 'Scientists have known for a while that the current period of warming was preceded by a long-term cooling trend. But our reconstruction quantifies the cooling with greater certainty than before.'
The research - published in the journal Science - comes from a team of British and American geologists who tracked summer Arctic temperatures to the time of the Romans by studying natural signals in the landscape.
Their reconstruction found that the Arctic got cooler in the summer months between 1AD and 1900, thanks to a natural 'wobble' in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
The wobble slowly increased the distance between the Earth and the Sun during the Arctic summer, reducing summer temperatures by around 0.2C every thousand years and causing the 'Little Ice Age' that led to freezing winters in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries.
But during the 20th century, temperatures began to rise dramatically - even though the amount of sunlight reaching the Arctic during the summer was continuing to fall.
The decade between 1999 to 2008 was the warmest in the last 2,000 years, the research found.
The researchers say the Arctic should still be cooling because the Earth is now about 600,000 miles farther away from the Sun than it was in 1BC.
They estimate that by the middle of the century, summer Arctic temperatures were about 0.7C higher than would have been expected if the cooling trend had continued.
Today, temperatures are around 1.4C higher than they should be, the authors say.
Dr David Schneider, from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, said: 'This result is particularly important because the Arctic, perhaps more than any other region on Earth, is facing dramatic impacts from climate change.
'This study provides us with a long-term record that reveals how greenhouse gases from human activities are overwhelming the Arctic's natural climate system.
'Greenhouse gases are overtaking a natural cycle.'
The temperature reconstruction looked at the amount of algae in sediments in Arctic lakes - which reflect the length of the growing season - and the thickness of annually deposited layers of sediment which increase during warmer summers when deposits from glacial melt water increases.
They also looked at records of tree rings. The amount of new growth of a tree each year is strongly linked to the temperature of the growing season.
The Arctic appears to be particularly vulnerable to changes to the Earth's climate.
Previous research has shown that Arctic temperatures rose three times faster during the 20th century than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.
Some experts have predicted that the Arctic could be free from sea ice in the winter within the next few decades if the temperatures continue to rise
Friday, September 4, 2009
Supkis on vaccine hysteria...
I am increasingly concerned about the anti-vaccination movement. It seems, on the surface, to be simply irrational. But when we dig deeper into this issue, we detect some rather frightful matters attached like barnacles to the bottom of this particular boat. First, some good news concerning vaccinations, especially the very wonderful news that we may eventually see a real vaccination against that terrible scourge, AIDS:.
Sinovac Shares Rose After Chinese Government Approved Vaccine (SVA) – FOXBusiness.com
Sep 03, 2009 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) —-9/3/2009 – Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NYSE:SVA) shares rose 6.6% in afternoon trading Thursday after the Chinese government approved its one-shot swine flu vaccine and issued a production license to the company to start making the drug. The vaccine is the first to be approved by the Chinese regulators. Sinovac and Novartis AG are the only company’s who have said their vaccine may protect people with one shot instead of two.
.
OK: one of the favored conspiracy theories of the radicals who hate vaccinations is the mythology that governments want to kill you and me with a shot to the arm. Now, logically speaking, why would the Chinese government want to kill off all the Chinese people? True, the LDP in Japan seemed awfully indifferent to whether or not the Japanese people even survived or reproduced. But I assure everyone, China’s government wants its own people to be healthy and strong.
.
Of course, the profits from pollution means ignoring health issues. But this seems to be rapidly clearing up as the government is responding to both international outrage but even more, internal fury over pollution. The good parents of Chinese children do not want them poisoned by factory or energy plant wastes just like, they want to have safe schools in earthquake zones. There is tremendous pressure on the communist leadership to protect the children and this pressure grows as China’s wealth increases.
.
I would suggest that China is very intent on a safe vaccination that will protect the Chinese people from swine or any other flues. Historically, many of the worst viral outbreaks that killed millions originated in China. This is because, even 100 years ago, China had one quarter of the planet’s population and many of these people lived very closely with pigs, ducks, chickens and oxen. The intensive farming methods using these animals to grow, fertilize, crop and fallow farmlands is a huge intersection between germs and humans. The mutation rates of various diseases were very high due to the intermix of populations which were extremely close in proximity due to pens, leashes and flock control methods.
.
The US government is doing exactly the same thing the Chinese communists are doing: trying to stop any possible pandemic. This is because, millions of deaths would be a grave problem for the US especially if it is children and young adults. If anyone imagines that vaccinations are being deviously designed to kill us, this begs the logical question, why? That is, if the germs will kill us, why use other methods? I find this illogical systematic thinking to be a key characteristic of many conspiracy belief systems. Indeed, the seem addicted to this sort of illogical thinking. If a government protect people, the irrational believers in conspiracies think this is a tricky way to really kill us. And if the government does nothing when danger approaches, ditto! This is beyond silly, it is stupid.
.
New hope for Aids vaccine as scientists find ‘Achilles heel’ – Times Online
The search for an HIV vaccine has taken a major step forward with the discovery of a potential Achilles heel of the virus that causes Aids. .
Two powerful antibodies that attack a vulnerable spot common to many strains of HIV have been identified, improving the prospects for a vaccine against a virus that affects an estimated 33 million people and kills over 2 million each year. .
The discovery is important because it highlights a potential way around HIV’s defences against the human immune system, which have so far thwarted efforts to make a workable vaccine. The hope is that a vaccine that stimulates the production of these antibodies could remain effective against HIV even as the virus mutates. .
Scientists from the International Aids Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) are already examining the antibodies for clues to vaccine design. The new techniques used to discover the antibodies also promise further progress, as they should reveal other weaknesses in HIV that a vaccine might exploit.
.
Hooray! This is good, good news! Africa and many island communities like Haiti are being ravaged by AIDS. It is destroying entire communities, literally. It is a slow death so people get sicker and sicker and can do less and less and this leads to a collapse in farming, trading and raising families. It is a complete disaster for the third world! And for anyone else! This disease has killed many millions of people and is a major plague. And I hope, will be terminated by a vaccination. We must thank the many scientists who devoted their careers to understanding this viral menace and mapping its internal structure.
.
The anti-vaccination people will fight this one, tooth and nail. I can see it coming: they are irrational, dangerous and DEADLY. Many obvious liars take refuge within the antiviral community and work tirelessly to convince people to do something deadly to themselves. This is criminal.
.
anti-vaccination moevment – The Skeptic’s Dictionary – Skepdic.com
The anti-vaccination movement (AVM) is at least two-pronged: one prong denies a causal connection between vaccines and the eradication or significant reduction of diseases like smallpox, polio, measles, and rubella; the other prong perceives vaccines as causing diseases, e.g., it claims that the MMR (mumps-measles-rubella) vaccine causes autism. Either way, the AVM proponents oppose vaccination against disease. .
One might consider a third prong of the AVM to be those who advocate homeopathic “vaccines” or isopathic preparations for such things as meningococcal disease, the “flu”, childhood illnesses, malaria, and HIV. Such people offer magic water in place of an actual vaccine developed and properly tested by scientists. They believe the water has been energized and has a selective “memory” of molecules long gone in the homeopathic dilution process. Most homeopathic vaccines are nothing but water or inert substances and cannot protect anyone from anything. They endanger people’s lives when they are offered as protection against diseases like malaria. They are sought out by people who do not trust real vaccines and who live according to the principles of vitalism and magical thinking. Thus, we might well say that those who recommend homeopathic vaccines are part of the AVM since, in effect, they oppose real vaccination against disease. .
One thing that unites these three prongs of the AVM is that each is selective in its picking of evidence to support its viewpoint and to denigrate one of scientific medicine’s major contributions to public health.
.
timeline of the autism caused by vaccines scare – The Skeptic’s Dictionary – Skepdic.com
[This timeline is in response to Sharon Begley's Newsweek article that gives the impression that there has been a significant amount of publication in reputable journals in support of the vaccine/autism link. It is important to emphasize the need to look at all the evidence and accept what the preponderance of the data supports. All of us are susceptible to confirmation bias and too many of us go with our gut instinct rather than with the data. Your "mommy instinct" or gut feeling isn't as reliable as you think it is when it comes to complex causal matters.] .
Background: The anti-MMR-vaccine movement has two camps: one sees the vaccine as harmful, the other sees thimerosal (an ethylmercury based preservative) as harmful. In the US, the anti-vaccine movement began as one aspect of a larger movement that blames mercury and other neurotoxins in the environment for most neurological disorders. After thimerosal was removed from vaccines, the focus shifted to the quantity of shots given to children and to the speculation that some children are “especially sensitive” to vaccines. The evidence, as you can see for yourself by following this timeline, is overwhelmingly in favor of the notion that neither the vaccines nor their preservatives are harmful, but that not getting children vaccinated has harmful, sometimes deadly, consequences.
.
I have gone from being annoyed by the anti-vaccination commentators who have posted one fake story after another here on my blog. Now, I will tell them all who they really are: FOOLS. I am utterly outraged by this movement and I recommend that everyone read the above timeline in the Skeptic article. Don’t worry about clicking on this story, it won’t rip your heads off. It is important to read because a lot of it is about the false calumny about autism and vaccinations. Autism is most likely a genetic problem. And incidentally, could also be aggravated by pollution. As I detailed in my mercury in fish story the other day.
.
Some of my readers hate science. I can’t fix this problem. People love illogic and prefer magic, over science and can’t be fixed via arguments or logical expositions. If someone wants to be crazy, they will be crazy! But the problem is deep: people basically have a poor understanding of what science actually is. It is an ongoing logic systems argument which settles debates via assembling and then examining from all angles, all information relevant to the issues. Double blind testing is one area in science which is most important. Non-scientists who want to make ideological points, often ignore the double blind tests. They want to assemble ‘facts’ and then draw conclusions based on their pet facts.
.
Also, if someone discovers something and no one can reproduce it or find it again, it is discounted. Since it isn’t happening twice. People seeking to have singular events hate this rule. Another tool of science is to test things over and over again, in a bigger and bigger pool and with more and more people participating. This way, hoaxes and misunderstandings are revealed.
.
A great number of investigators took the autism/vaccination story very seriously. And after many years of hard work, have decided there is NO connection whatsoever. I lost one good commentator here, David, because he and his sister were convinced, based only on their singular observations, that the vaccinations caused his sister to deliver an autistic baby. David believes this business despite being told by professionals that the condition appears right after the third month, probably triggered by hormone changes, which happens to coincide with the first vaccinations. When it comes to family relations, people’s emotions overwhelm them and they have to react and then cling to the reaction.
.
So the story spreads, vaccinations are evil. Despite the fact that the diseases these vaccinations protect us from kill, maim and create autistic-like damage to healthy babies! That is, these diseases can paralyze, kill, render deaf, put holes in hearts, etc and thus, are a grave danger in themselves.
.
To immunize or not? | PressDemocrat.com | The Press Democrat | Santa Rosa, CA
The percentage of fully immunized students entering Sonoma County kindergarten classes has steadily dipped from 91.6 percent in 2002 to 87.7 percent last fall, according to state records. The statewide average is down by only 0.6 points over the same period. .
Roughly half of this year’s kindergartners who are not fully vaccinated have exemptions that cover all diseases. The other half are missing some vaccinations. .
The county’s nearly 4-point drop in the vaccination rate might seem small, but officials say it comes close to the level — about 85 percent — at which “herd immunization,” the safety in numbers from widespread inoculation, breaks down. .
In nine county school districts, six of them in the west county, the percentage of fully immunized kindergartners is below 80 percent, a Public Health Department analysis said. The figures exclude private schools. .
At six North Bay schools, all charter or private schools, more than half the families had received exemptions from the required vaccination regimen. Such concentrations of partially immunized or unimmunized students pose “a significant risk of an outbreak of a vaccine-preventable disease,” Maddux-Gonzalez said. .
State law allows parents, by merely signing a waiver form, to gain exemption from the vaccinations required to enter kindergarten at public and private schools.
.
One child gets sick in the private schools and we get a mini-epidemic! Already, the rate of death and impaired health from lack of vaccinations is rising rapidly in ‘educated’ countries due to this global push to get parents to stop immunizing their children! If anyone is paranoid, wouldn’t they be upset that dangerous people are convincing gullible parents to expose their children to possible DEATH??? I used to live in northern California. This is where people believe the ridiculous idea that if you eat certain foods, viruses and bacteria will leave you alone or not hurt you. This is pure hogwash.
.
I got a number of emails from enraged readers who did NOT want to hear this news. They wanted desperately to believe that if they ate carrots every day, they would never get very sick. I can’t help it: if I know something, I will say it out loud. History is crystal clear: no matter what you eat, you can be struck down by the Viral Kingdom in a flash.
.
Autism Blog – Autism, scientology and the moonies « Left Brain/Right Brain
I never imagined when I started blogging about autism just how deep the rabbit hole of quackery went. It never ceases to amaze me how the relationships between some of the people deeply involved in the mercury militia start to unravel with some occasionally disturbing results. .
Over the last few weeks, I’ve come across some of the most disturbing relationships yet. As the title suggests, there seem to be disturbing links between some mercury militia members and the Unification Church (the moonies) and there are definite links between established scientologists and DAN! as well as other non-DAN! mercury militia resources. Most disturbing of all is the suggestion of a relationship between The Moonies and Scientology with an apparent agenda to encourage the mercury militia and possibly even help finance or otherwise aid the legal fight some parents are undergoing with relation to vaccines and autism.
.
If anyone is paranoid, the words ‘Moonies’ and ‘Scientologists’ should make you scream and run like hell! And guess what, everyone: both of these groups work hand in glove with a number of the damn ‘NWO’ people you guys are blaming for everything! Why not connect some dots here? The movement to expose yourselves and your poor children to dangerous and deadly viral diseases….are these guys. And if you are truly paranoid, google ‘Scientologists’ and see what real darkness looks like! GAH! Get a grip!
.
This is what happens when people are lured into cults. The anti-vaccination groups are CULTS. So are the Moonies and the Scientologists. There are many cults out there that want us to not take medicines and to not get vaccinations. I know that a number of Buddhist cults are the same way. As well as born again Christian cults or cults like the Mennonites, the list is very long. The fear of vaccinations is a key element in irrational religious cults. It taps into a dark part of the brain which is where religious beliefs lurk and it a grave danger to any rational consideration of reality.
.
Sarah Palin Adviser’s Secret Scientology Plot to Take Over Washington – sarah palin – Gawker
John Coale, currently advising Sarah Palin on running for president in 2012, is a Scientologist. And according to a memo obtained by Gawker, Coale once plotted to use friendly politicians to advance the power-hungry cult’s agenda. .
Coale is a prominent Washington power broker and husband to Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren. According to the Washington Post, he is running Palin’s political action committee behind the scenes and “guiding [her] political image in Washington.” .
In 1986, he masterminded a plan—which was never executed—for Scientology to get into the “MONEY and VOTES game” in order to “create power” for Scientology and win influence Washington, D.C…. .
…Coale denies playing any role in Palin’s political career aside from that of a friend who e-mails her once a week or so. And he insists that he has never used his political influence—in addition to Palin, his friends include the Clintons and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, among many others in Washington—to advance the aims of Scientology. “I don’t think I have ever said, to the Clintons or Nancy Pelosi, or anyone else, a word about Scientology. Not a word.”
.
Read this and weep. Fox TV is big on cult beliefs. It encourages all sorts of irrational or outright stupid behavior. For example, in the healthcare debate, it promotes the false story about ‘death panels’ which is exactly what the Scientologists love. Fox TV is big on taking over normal outrage like the Tea Baggers who were turned on their heads and shoved into being anti-healthcare. A number of people who get government healthcare are screaming about healthcare reforms thanks to these creeps who run Fox TV. And the Scientologists know that if they sow fear and paranoia, they can harvest fools to use as tools.
.
Ditto, a number of religious organizations. Religions love to pretend they heal people. So, while doctors toil using modern science and medicine to save lives of believers, their brethren stand around pray and then, if the doctors succeed, always crow that their particular god or belief was the true cure. Some religions are very doctrinaire and forbid modern medications and their believers die. Of course, when inflicted on innocent children who have no choice in the matter, this becomes criminal.
.
Now, to round out the health news (before the regular crew here begins howling at the moon rather than at the Moonies) here is some news about the biggest pharmaceutical corporation breaking the law:
.
Pfizer to pay record $2.3bn settlement | Business | guardian.co.uk
The government said Pfizer had promoted four prescription drugs, including a painkiller, Bextra, as treatments for medical conditions – but, crucially, the ailments were not ones for which those drugs had been federally approved. .
Use of drugs for so-called “off-label” medical conditions is not uncommon, but drug manufacturers are prohibited from marketing drugs for uses that have not been approved by the food and drug administration. .
Bextra, one of a class of painkillers known as Cox-2 inhibitors, was pulled from the US market in 2005 amid mounting evidence it raised the risk of heart attack, stroke and death…. .
…The government said Pfizer had promoted four prescription drugs, including a painkiller, Bextra, as treatments for medical conditions – but, crucially, the ailments were not ones for which those drugs had been federally approved. .
Use of drugs for so-called “off-label” medical conditions is not uncommon, but drug manufacturers are prohibited from marketing drugs for uses that have not been approved by the food and drug administration. .
Bextra, one of a class of painkillers known as Cox-2 inhibitors, was pulled from the US market in 2005 amid mounting evidence it raised the risk of heart attack, stroke and death.
.
I happen to be a believer (yes, this is religious!) that people should feel pain. I was dying once and I heard a voice (yes, I have the same brain as everyone else) telling me, ‘If you feel pain, you are alive.’ So I muttered that to the nurse who told me about this, later. Well, pain is life! We need pain to feel the other feelings in our bodies. All pain killers also kill other feelings and this is very bad for us.
.
So pain killers have to be used sparingly. I will endure immense pain in order to continue feeling my other feelings! But most people don’t like pain and want to live sans any pains at all. So they pop pills or use other substances to stop feeling ANYTHING at all! Since this is all about addictions, governments outlaw one painkiller (opium was an early one!) after another. But all of them are addictive because many humans love to avoid pain. I can’t get addicted to painkillers because I hate them.
.
The Holy Grail is a painkiller that isn’t addictive. I think this will never be found due to humans loving painkillers too much. So here is a paradox: to really live life, you have to suffer lots of pain. And this is an unhappy thing. But then, all the real joys in life involve alertness and focus and nothing makes us more alert and focused than some pain.
http://emsnews.wordpress.com/2009/09/04/aids-vaccine-possible-at-last
Sinovac Shares Rose After Chinese Government Approved Vaccine (SVA) – FOXBusiness.com
Sep 03, 2009 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) —-9/3/2009 – Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (NYSE:SVA) shares rose 6.6% in afternoon trading Thursday after the Chinese government approved its one-shot swine flu vaccine and issued a production license to the company to start making the drug. The vaccine is the first to be approved by the Chinese regulators. Sinovac and Novartis AG are the only company’s who have said their vaccine may protect people with one shot instead of two.
.
OK: one of the favored conspiracy theories of the radicals who hate vaccinations is the mythology that governments want to kill you and me with a shot to the arm. Now, logically speaking, why would the Chinese government want to kill off all the Chinese people? True, the LDP in Japan seemed awfully indifferent to whether or not the Japanese people even survived or reproduced. But I assure everyone, China’s government wants its own people to be healthy and strong.
.
Of course, the profits from pollution means ignoring health issues. But this seems to be rapidly clearing up as the government is responding to both international outrage but even more, internal fury over pollution. The good parents of Chinese children do not want them poisoned by factory or energy plant wastes just like, they want to have safe schools in earthquake zones. There is tremendous pressure on the communist leadership to protect the children and this pressure grows as China’s wealth increases.
.
I would suggest that China is very intent on a safe vaccination that will protect the Chinese people from swine or any other flues. Historically, many of the worst viral outbreaks that killed millions originated in China. This is because, even 100 years ago, China had one quarter of the planet’s population and many of these people lived very closely with pigs, ducks, chickens and oxen. The intensive farming methods using these animals to grow, fertilize, crop and fallow farmlands is a huge intersection between germs and humans. The mutation rates of various diseases were very high due to the intermix of populations which were extremely close in proximity due to pens, leashes and flock control methods.
.
The US government is doing exactly the same thing the Chinese communists are doing: trying to stop any possible pandemic. This is because, millions of deaths would be a grave problem for the US especially if it is children and young adults. If anyone imagines that vaccinations are being deviously designed to kill us, this begs the logical question, why? That is, if the germs will kill us, why use other methods? I find this illogical systematic thinking to be a key characteristic of many conspiracy belief systems. Indeed, the seem addicted to this sort of illogical thinking. If a government protect people, the irrational believers in conspiracies think this is a tricky way to really kill us. And if the government does nothing when danger approaches, ditto! This is beyond silly, it is stupid.
.
New hope for Aids vaccine as scientists find ‘Achilles heel’ – Times Online
The search for an HIV vaccine has taken a major step forward with the discovery of a potential Achilles heel of the virus that causes Aids. .
Two powerful antibodies that attack a vulnerable spot common to many strains of HIV have been identified, improving the prospects for a vaccine against a virus that affects an estimated 33 million people and kills over 2 million each year. .
The discovery is important because it highlights a potential way around HIV’s defences against the human immune system, which have so far thwarted efforts to make a workable vaccine. The hope is that a vaccine that stimulates the production of these antibodies could remain effective against HIV even as the virus mutates. .
Scientists from the International Aids Vaccine Initiative (IAVI) are already examining the antibodies for clues to vaccine design. The new techniques used to discover the antibodies also promise further progress, as they should reveal other weaknesses in HIV that a vaccine might exploit.
.
Hooray! This is good, good news! Africa and many island communities like Haiti are being ravaged by AIDS. It is destroying entire communities, literally. It is a slow death so people get sicker and sicker and can do less and less and this leads to a collapse in farming, trading and raising families. It is a complete disaster for the third world! And for anyone else! This disease has killed many millions of people and is a major plague. And I hope, will be terminated by a vaccination. We must thank the many scientists who devoted their careers to understanding this viral menace and mapping its internal structure.
.
The anti-vaccination people will fight this one, tooth and nail. I can see it coming: they are irrational, dangerous and DEADLY. Many obvious liars take refuge within the antiviral community and work tirelessly to convince people to do something deadly to themselves. This is criminal.
.
anti-vaccination moevment – The Skeptic’s Dictionary – Skepdic.com
The anti-vaccination movement (AVM) is at least two-pronged: one prong denies a causal connection between vaccines and the eradication or significant reduction of diseases like smallpox, polio, measles, and rubella; the other prong perceives vaccines as causing diseases, e.g., it claims that the MMR (mumps-measles-rubella) vaccine causes autism. Either way, the AVM proponents oppose vaccination against disease. .
One might consider a third prong of the AVM to be those who advocate homeopathic “vaccines” or isopathic preparations for such things as meningococcal disease, the “flu”, childhood illnesses, malaria, and HIV. Such people offer magic water in place of an actual vaccine developed and properly tested by scientists. They believe the water has been energized and has a selective “memory” of molecules long gone in the homeopathic dilution process. Most homeopathic vaccines are nothing but water or inert substances and cannot protect anyone from anything. They endanger people’s lives when they are offered as protection against diseases like malaria. They are sought out by people who do not trust real vaccines and who live according to the principles of vitalism and magical thinking. Thus, we might well say that those who recommend homeopathic vaccines are part of the AVM since, in effect, they oppose real vaccination against disease. .
One thing that unites these three prongs of the AVM is that each is selective in its picking of evidence to support its viewpoint and to denigrate one of scientific medicine’s major contributions to public health.
.
timeline of the autism caused by vaccines scare – The Skeptic’s Dictionary – Skepdic.com
[This timeline is in response to Sharon Begley's Newsweek article that gives the impression that there has been a significant amount of publication in reputable journals in support of the vaccine/autism link. It is important to emphasize the need to look at all the evidence and accept what the preponderance of the data supports. All of us are susceptible to confirmation bias and too many of us go with our gut instinct rather than with the data. Your "mommy instinct" or gut feeling isn't as reliable as you think it is when it comes to complex causal matters.] .
Background: The anti-MMR-vaccine movement has two camps: one sees the vaccine as harmful, the other sees thimerosal (an ethylmercury based preservative) as harmful. In the US, the anti-vaccine movement began as one aspect of a larger movement that blames mercury and other neurotoxins in the environment for most neurological disorders. After thimerosal was removed from vaccines, the focus shifted to the quantity of shots given to children and to the speculation that some children are “especially sensitive” to vaccines. The evidence, as you can see for yourself by following this timeline, is overwhelmingly in favor of the notion that neither the vaccines nor their preservatives are harmful, but that not getting children vaccinated has harmful, sometimes deadly, consequences.
.
I have gone from being annoyed by the anti-vaccination commentators who have posted one fake story after another here on my blog. Now, I will tell them all who they really are: FOOLS. I am utterly outraged by this movement and I recommend that everyone read the above timeline in the Skeptic article. Don’t worry about clicking on this story, it won’t rip your heads off. It is important to read because a lot of it is about the false calumny about autism and vaccinations. Autism is most likely a genetic problem. And incidentally, could also be aggravated by pollution. As I detailed in my mercury in fish story the other day.
.
Some of my readers hate science. I can’t fix this problem. People love illogic and prefer magic, over science and can’t be fixed via arguments or logical expositions. If someone wants to be crazy, they will be crazy! But the problem is deep: people basically have a poor understanding of what science actually is. It is an ongoing logic systems argument which settles debates via assembling and then examining from all angles, all information relevant to the issues. Double blind testing is one area in science which is most important. Non-scientists who want to make ideological points, often ignore the double blind tests. They want to assemble ‘facts’ and then draw conclusions based on their pet facts.
.
Also, if someone discovers something and no one can reproduce it or find it again, it is discounted. Since it isn’t happening twice. People seeking to have singular events hate this rule. Another tool of science is to test things over and over again, in a bigger and bigger pool and with more and more people participating. This way, hoaxes and misunderstandings are revealed.
.
A great number of investigators took the autism/vaccination story very seriously. And after many years of hard work, have decided there is NO connection whatsoever. I lost one good commentator here, David, because he and his sister were convinced, based only on their singular observations, that the vaccinations caused his sister to deliver an autistic baby. David believes this business despite being told by professionals that the condition appears right after the third month, probably triggered by hormone changes, which happens to coincide with the first vaccinations. When it comes to family relations, people’s emotions overwhelm them and they have to react and then cling to the reaction.
.
So the story spreads, vaccinations are evil. Despite the fact that the diseases these vaccinations protect us from kill, maim and create autistic-like damage to healthy babies! That is, these diseases can paralyze, kill, render deaf, put holes in hearts, etc and thus, are a grave danger in themselves.
.
To immunize or not? | PressDemocrat.com | The Press Democrat | Santa Rosa, CA
The percentage of fully immunized students entering Sonoma County kindergarten classes has steadily dipped from 91.6 percent in 2002 to 87.7 percent last fall, according to state records. The statewide average is down by only 0.6 points over the same period. .
Roughly half of this year’s kindergartners who are not fully vaccinated have exemptions that cover all diseases. The other half are missing some vaccinations. .
The county’s nearly 4-point drop in the vaccination rate might seem small, but officials say it comes close to the level — about 85 percent — at which “herd immunization,” the safety in numbers from widespread inoculation, breaks down. .
In nine county school districts, six of them in the west county, the percentage of fully immunized kindergartners is below 80 percent, a Public Health Department analysis said. The figures exclude private schools. .
At six North Bay schools, all charter or private schools, more than half the families had received exemptions from the required vaccination regimen. Such concentrations of partially immunized or unimmunized students pose “a significant risk of an outbreak of a vaccine-preventable disease,” Maddux-Gonzalez said. .
State law allows parents, by merely signing a waiver form, to gain exemption from the vaccinations required to enter kindergarten at public and private schools.
.
One child gets sick in the private schools and we get a mini-epidemic! Already, the rate of death and impaired health from lack of vaccinations is rising rapidly in ‘educated’ countries due to this global push to get parents to stop immunizing their children! If anyone is paranoid, wouldn’t they be upset that dangerous people are convincing gullible parents to expose their children to possible DEATH??? I used to live in northern California. This is where people believe the ridiculous idea that if you eat certain foods, viruses and bacteria will leave you alone or not hurt you. This is pure hogwash.
.
I got a number of emails from enraged readers who did NOT want to hear this news. They wanted desperately to believe that if they ate carrots every day, they would never get very sick. I can’t help it: if I know something, I will say it out loud. History is crystal clear: no matter what you eat, you can be struck down by the Viral Kingdom in a flash.
.
Autism Blog – Autism, scientology and the moonies « Left Brain/Right Brain
I never imagined when I started blogging about autism just how deep the rabbit hole of quackery went. It never ceases to amaze me how the relationships between some of the people deeply involved in the mercury militia start to unravel with some occasionally disturbing results. .
Over the last few weeks, I’ve come across some of the most disturbing relationships yet. As the title suggests, there seem to be disturbing links between some mercury militia members and the Unification Church (the moonies) and there are definite links between established scientologists and DAN! as well as other non-DAN! mercury militia resources. Most disturbing of all is the suggestion of a relationship between The Moonies and Scientology with an apparent agenda to encourage the mercury militia and possibly even help finance or otherwise aid the legal fight some parents are undergoing with relation to vaccines and autism.
.
If anyone is paranoid, the words ‘Moonies’ and ‘Scientologists’ should make you scream and run like hell! And guess what, everyone: both of these groups work hand in glove with a number of the damn ‘NWO’ people you guys are blaming for everything! Why not connect some dots here? The movement to expose yourselves and your poor children to dangerous and deadly viral diseases….are these guys. And if you are truly paranoid, google ‘Scientologists’ and see what real darkness looks like! GAH! Get a grip!
.
This is what happens when people are lured into cults. The anti-vaccination groups are CULTS. So are the Moonies and the Scientologists. There are many cults out there that want us to not take medicines and to not get vaccinations. I know that a number of Buddhist cults are the same way. As well as born again Christian cults or cults like the Mennonites, the list is very long. The fear of vaccinations is a key element in irrational religious cults. It taps into a dark part of the brain which is where religious beliefs lurk and it a grave danger to any rational consideration of reality.
.
Sarah Palin Adviser’s Secret Scientology Plot to Take Over Washington – sarah palin – Gawker
John Coale, currently advising Sarah Palin on running for president in 2012, is a Scientologist. And according to a memo obtained by Gawker, Coale once plotted to use friendly politicians to advance the power-hungry cult’s agenda. .
Coale is a prominent Washington power broker and husband to Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren. According to the Washington Post, he is running Palin’s political action committee behind the scenes and “guiding [her] political image in Washington.” .
In 1986, he masterminded a plan—which was never executed—for Scientology to get into the “MONEY and VOTES game” in order to “create power” for Scientology and win influence Washington, D.C…. .
…Coale denies playing any role in Palin’s political career aside from that of a friend who e-mails her once a week or so. And he insists that he has never used his political influence—in addition to Palin, his friends include the Clintons and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, among many others in Washington—to advance the aims of Scientology. “I don’t think I have ever said, to the Clintons or Nancy Pelosi, or anyone else, a word about Scientology. Not a word.”
.
Read this and weep. Fox TV is big on cult beliefs. It encourages all sorts of irrational or outright stupid behavior. For example, in the healthcare debate, it promotes the false story about ‘death panels’ which is exactly what the Scientologists love. Fox TV is big on taking over normal outrage like the Tea Baggers who were turned on their heads and shoved into being anti-healthcare. A number of people who get government healthcare are screaming about healthcare reforms thanks to these creeps who run Fox TV. And the Scientologists know that if they sow fear and paranoia, they can harvest fools to use as tools.
.
Ditto, a number of religious organizations. Religions love to pretend they heal people. So, while doctors toil using modern science and medicine to save lives of believers, their brethren stand around pray and then, if the doctors succeed, always crow that their particular god or belief was the true cure. Some religions are very doctrinaire and forbid modern medications and their believers die. Of course, when inflicted on innocent children who have no choice in the matter, this becomes criminal.
.
Now, to round out the health news (before the regular crew here begins howling at the moon rather than at the Moonies) here is some news about the biggest pharmaceutical corporation breaking the law:
.
Pfizer to pay record $2.3bn settlement | Business | guardian.co.uk
The government said Pfizer had promoted four prescription drugs, including a painkiller, Bextra, as treatments for medical conditions – but, crucially, the ailments were not ones for which those drugs had been federally approved. .
Use of drugs for so-called “off-label” medical conditions is not uncommon, but drug manufacturers are prohibited from marketing drugs for uses that have not been approved by the food and drug administration. .
Bextra, one of a class of painkillers known as Cox-2 inhibitors, was pulled from the US market in 2005 amid mounting evidence it raised the risk of heart attack, stroke and death…. .
…The government said Pfizer had promoted four prescription drugs, including a painkiller, Bextra, as treatments for medical conditions – but, crucially, the ailments were not ones for which those drugs had been federally approved. .
Use of drugs for so-called “off-label” medical conditions is not uncommon, but drug manufacturers are prohibited from marketing drugs for uses that have not been approved by the food and drug administration. .
Bextra, one of a class of painkillers known as Cox-2 inhibitors, was pulled from the US market in 2005 amid mounting evidence it raised the risk of heart attack, stroke and death.
.
I happen to be a believer (yes, this is religious!) that people should feel pain. I was dying once and I heard a voice (yes, I have the same brain as everyone else) telling me, ‘If you feel pain, you are alive.’ So I muttered that to the nurse who told me about this, later. Well, pain is life! We need pain to feel the other feelings in our bodies. All pain killers also kill other feelings and this is very bad for us.
.
So pain killers have to be used sparingly. I will endure immense pain in order to continue feeling my other feelings! But most people don’t like pain and want to live sans any pains at all. So they pop pills or use other substances to stop feeling ANYTHING at all! Since this is all about addictions, governments outlaw one painkiller (opium was an early one!) after another. But all of them are addictive because many humans love to avoid pain. I can’t get addicted to painkillers because I hate them.
.
The Holy Grail is a painkiller that isn’t addictive. I think this will never be found due to humans loving painkillers too much. So here is a paradox: to really live life, you have to suffer lots of pain. And this is an unhappy thing. But then, all the real joys in life involve alertness and focus and nothing makes us more alert and focused than some pain.
http://emsnews.wordpress.com/2009/09/04/aids-vaccine-possible-at-last
Monday, August 31, 2009
On the post carbon die-off; a rebuttal....
We don't innovate with energy because it is too cheap...but we will all be innovating big time sooner or later......not starving in the dark.
“Leibig’s Law” states that growth in a system is controlled not by the total of resources available, but by the scarcest resource (limiting factor). How does this apply energy production? I have about 7.20E+03 pounds of lead in my home PV system. Global production of lead is about 3.88E+06 tonnes per year. The 1.30E+08 homes in the US would require 9.36E+11 pounds (4.25E+08 tonnes) of lead every eight or so years. For alternate energy storage in homes, the US alone would need 100 times the current global production of lead – six times the global reserves of lead – just for US home electrical storage (that number DOES NOT include transportation or business)! Therefore, we know that it’s literally impossible for alternative energy to replace fossil fuels. It’s literally true that “peak oil” is equivalent to “peak everything.” More on scarce minerals at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5559 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5239
I send your post to my engineering friend, Here are his comments:
This guy is living the standard brainless clueless USA energy hog existence with 7000 lb. worth of batteries. In contrast Barbara Kerr (Kerr-Cole Sustainable Living Center) gets by on 480 lb. and I live happily with 240 lb. of batteries. Nonetheless he has the right idea regarding lead. According to globalleadnet.com STRONG>/ STRONG> /FONT> STRONG>/ STRONG> /file_download/17/5.pdf the US production was from 477,000 metric tonnes of 65% ore concentrate, which works out to 680,000,000 lb. in primary lead (not from recycling) sources (mining) in 1991. This is enough to supply 1000 lb of batteries to 680,000 new installations. Presumably existing installations will recycle lead, and therefore will neither add nor subtract from the lead supply. This guy forgot that lead is not consumed in batteries in 8 years; it is nearly 100% recyclable. He forgets that there are other battery technologies that will come into the mix: nickel-metal-hydride (my Prius for example) and lithium ion (the coming plug-in Prius for example). The future probably lies in running your house partially off the car battery using grid-tie EV technology - and learning to live with severe electrical energy rationing (by today's standards). This guy is also ignorant of compressed air automotive technology. And of power grid storage options such as hydrogen, ammonia (a much more practical offshoot of hydrogen), compressed air, flywheels and pumped hydro for on-demand electricity production. Not everybody needs batteries in a renewable, alternative technology. One can use the grid via net metering to store what one generates, or just buy the alternative juice from the utility.
Most important, he is neglecting geothermal energy which is a base load technology (runs 24/7 and therefore does not require any storage whatsoever). I am right now at one of the most advanced geothermal plants in the world, Chena Hot Springs near Fairbanks. The maverick entrepreneur owner of this spa put in a cutting edge power plant a three years ago on his own nickel (well 2.5 megabucks, actually) for 1/5 the cost of conventional technology, mainly by modifying a standard industrial chiller to operate in reverse using mostly off-the shelf components (with concomitant economies of scale using reliable mature design equipment that has been in production for decades). He has cut his electrical energy cost by $500,000 dollars a year because he has replaced diesel ($0.50 per kWh operating cost) with geo ($0.02 per kWh operating cost). The key innovation is that it runs off low relatively low temperature hot water, making it operable from deep earth heated water from depleted oil wells. This the "geothermal anywhere" (GA) concept. He is now going into the business of putting 200 kW mobile power plants on a semi trailers and leasing them out to wherever waste heat or easy geothermal is available. The first two mobile units are supplying power to this community and my computer right now as they undergo pre-delivery testing (they are temporarily replacing the on-site power plant). Very soon they will take a 6000 mile trip to Florida to run on oil well waste heat.
The installed plant here produces twice the power the community needs (for emergency backup redundancy for service down-time or failure of one of the generators). So he just put in a hydrogen electrolysis plant to transport "stranded" excess energy capacity to market. Waste heat warms four-season greenhouses (the tomato plants are 14 months old and producing like gangbusters). He has all the lighting he wants to keep the grow lights on in the winter 24/7, 100 miles from the arctic circle. He plans to become self-sufficient in food.
Interesting, huh? You might think about relocating to a community with hot spring or depleted oil well. There may be a future in it.
“Leibig’s Law” states that growth in a system is controlled not by the total of resources available, but by the scarcest resource (limiting factor). How does this apply energy production? I have about 7.20E+03 pounds of lead in my home PV system. Global production of lead is about 3.88E+06 tonnes per year. The 1.30E+08 homes in the US would require 9.36E+11 pounds (4.25E+08 tonnes) of lead every eight or so years. For alternate energy storage in homes, the US alone would need 100 times the current global production of lead – six times the global reserves of lead – just for US home electrical storage (that number DOES NOT include transportation or business)! Therefore, we know that it’s literally impossible for alternative energy to replace fossil fuels. It’s literally true that “peak oil” is equivalent to “peak everything.” More on scarce minerals at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5559 http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5239
I send your post to my engineering friend, Here are his comments:
This guy is living the standard brainless clueless USA energy hog existence with 7000 lb. worth of batteries. In contrast Barbara Kerr (Kerr-Cole Sustainable Living Center) gets by on 480 lb. and I live happily with 240 lb. of batteries. Nonetheless he has the right idea regarding lead. According to globalleadnet.com STRONG>/ STRONG> /FONT> STRONG>/ STRONG> /file_download/17/5.pdf the US production was from 477,000 metric tonnes of 65% ore concentrate, which works out to 680,000,000 lb. in primary lead (not from recycling) sources (mining) in 1991. This is enough to supply 1000 lb of batteries to 680,000 new installations. Presumably existing installations will recycle lead, and therefore will neither add nor subtract from the lead supply. This guy forgot that lead is not consumed in batteries in 8 years; it is nearly 100% recyclable. He forgets that there are other battery technologies that will come into the mix: nickel-metal-hydride (my Prius for example) and lithium ion (the coming plug-in Prius for example). The future probably lies in running your house partially off the car battery using grid-tie EV technology - and learning to live with severe electrical energy rationing (by today's standards). This guy is also ignorant of compressed air automotive technology. And of power grid storage options such as hydrogen, ammonia (a much more practical offshoot of hydrogen), compressed air, flywheels and pumped hydro for on-demand electricity production. Not everybody needs batteries in a renewable, alternative technology. One can use the grid via net metering to store what one generates, or just buy the alternative juice from the utility.
Most important, he is neglecting geothermal energy which is a base load technology (runs 24/7 and therefore does not require any storage whatsoever). I am right now at one of the most advanced geothermal plants in the world, Chena Hot Springs near Fairbanks. The maverick entrepreneur owner of this spa put in a cutting edge power plant a three years ago on his own nickel (well 2.5 megabucks, actually) for 1/5 the cost of conventional technology, mainly by modifying a standard industrial chiller to operate in reverse using mostly off-the shelf components (with concomitant economies of scale using reliable mature design equipment that has been in production for decades). He has cut his electrical energy cost by $500,000 dollars a year because he has replaced diesel ($0.50 per kWh operating cost) with geo ($0.02 per kWh operating cost). The key innovation is that it runs off low relatively low temperature hot water, making it operable from deep earth heated water from depleted oil wells. This the "geothermal anywhere" (GA) concept. He is now going into the business of putting 200 kW mobile power plants on a semi trailers and leasing them out to wherever waste heat or easy geothermal is available. The first two mobile units are supplying power to this community and my computer right now as they undergo pre-delivery testing (they are temporarily replacing the on-site power plant). Very soon they will take a 6000 mile trip to Florida to run on oil well waste heat.
The installed plant here produces twice the power the community needs (for emergency backup redundancy for service down-time or failure of one of the generators). So he just put in a hydrogen electrolysis plant to transport "stranded" excess energy capacity to market. Waste heat warms four-season greenhouses (the tomato plants are 14 months old and producing like gangbusters). He has all the lighting he wants to keep the grow lights on in the winter 24/7, 100 miles from the arctic circle. He plans to become self-sufficient in food.
Interesting, huh? You might think about relocating to a community with hot spring or depleted oil well. There may be a future in it.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Holding heavy objects makes us see things as more important
Its like Taleb says, we only think we are thinking and our judgement is very weak, it can only be strong if we always remain aware of just how weak it is...
Gravity affects not just our bodies and our behaviours, but our very thoughts. That's the fascinating conclusion of a new study which shows that simply holding a heavy object can affect the way we think. A simple heavy clipboard can makes issues seem weightier - when holding one, volunteers think of situations as more important and they invest more mental effort in dealing with abstract issues.
In a variety of languages, from English to Dutch to Chinese, importance is often described by words pertaining to weight. We speak of 'heavy news, 'weighty matters' and 'light entertainment'. We weigh up the value of evidence, we lend weight to arguments with facts, and our opinions carry weight if we wield influence and authority. These are more than just quirks of language - they reflect real links that our minds make between weight and importance.
Nils Jostmann from the University of Amsterdam demonstrated the link between weight and importance through a quartet of experiments. In each one, a different set of volunteers held a clipboard that either weighed 1.5 pounds or 2.3 pounds.
The extra 0.8 pounds were enough to make volunteers think that a foreign currency was worth more money. Forty volunteers were asked to guess the conversion rates between euros and six other currencies, indicating their estimate by marking a straight line. Those who held the heavier clipboard valued the currencies more generously, even though a separate questionnaire showed that they felt the same about the euro.
Money, of course, does have its own weight, so for his next trick, Jostmann wanted to stay entirely within the abstract realm. He considered justice - an area that is free of weight but hardly free of importance. Jostmann showed 50 volunteers a scenario where a university committee was denying students the opportunity to voice their opinions on a study grant. It was a potentially weighty issue, but more so to the students who held the heavy clipboard. They felt it was more important that the university listened to the students' opinions.
Jostmann also showed that people are less likely to take matters lightly if they're holding something heavier. In his third task, he asked 49 recruits to rate the mayor of Amsterdam in terms of his competence, likeability, powerlessness, trustworthiness, intelligence, corruption, importance and charisma. They also had to give their opinion about Amsterdam itself - whether it was a great city and how much they enjoyed being in it. The weight of the clipboards didn't affect the evaluations of either the mayor or the city. However, the two sets of scores were more strongly correlated among the volunteers who held the heavier board.
Jostmann thinks that the extra weight made people invest that little bit more mental effort in awarding their scores - hence the more consistent rankings across the mayor- and city-based questions. This result, I feel, is a bit more tenuous. Jostmann argues the case that satisfaction with the mayor is an indirect measure of satisfaction with the city, so the two scores should match to some extent. That seems reasonable, but it hasn't been demonstrated, which makes interpreting the study a bit more difficult.
In the final task, 40 visitors were asked to say whether they agreed with six statements about the construction of a controversial new subway that was big news at the time. The list included three arguments that previous volunteers had deemed as weak (e.g. the building of the subway is a sign of courage to handle large-scale projects) and three arguments that were stronger (e.g. the subway will make the city more accessible).
In all cases, the volunteers agreed more with the strong arguments but especially so if they held the heavier clipboards. This group were also more confident in their opinions and were more likely to be clearly in favour of the subway or against it, rather than dawdling on the fence. Again, the results suggest that under the influence of the weightier board, people make stronger and more polarised judgments, and they do so more confidently.
The effects of the clipboards were small but statistically significant - unlikely to have arisen by chance. The boards didn't affect the moods of the volunteers, and with a weight of just 2.3 pounds, no one felt that the heavier board was actually burdensome to hold.
Instead, Jostmann reasons that the link between weight and importance is rooted in our early childhood experiences, when we rapidly learn that heavy objects require more effort to deal with, not just in terms of strength but planning too. Our brain relies on these concrete physical experiences when it represents more abstract concepts, like importance. The two are then joined, so that physical experiences can affect abstract thought.
This is far from the first study that has supported this "theory of embodied cognition". Jostmann's explanation can also account for why thinking clean thoughts can soften moral judgments and why immoral thoughts trigger a need for physical cleanliness. It's why warming our hands can make us socially warmer, why social exclusion literally feels cold.
Update: Just realised that I've been totally scooped by Vaughan at Mind Hacks. Go over there for another take.
An aside: I love academia. The paper says, "Being hit by a heavy object generally has more profound consequences than being hit by a light object." I will remember this the next time I'm hit by a heavy object. Instead of a primal scream, I will opt for a more dignified, "Lo. I am struck. The consequences are most profound."
Reference: Jostmann, N., Lakens, D., & Schubert, T. (2009). Weight as an Embodiment of Importance Psychological Science DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02426.x
http://scienceblogs.com/notrocketscience/2009/08/holding_heavy_objects_makes_us_see_things_as_more_important.php?utm_source=nytwidget
Gravity affects not just our bodies and our behaviours, but our very thoughts. That's the fascinating conclusion of a new study which shows that simply holding a heavy object can affect the way we think. A simple heavy clipboard can makes issues seem weightier - when holding one, volunteers think of situations as more important and they invest more mental effort in dealing with abstract issues.
In a variety of languages, from English to Dutch to Chinese, importance is often described by words pertaining to weight. We speak of 'heavy news, 'weighty matters' and 'light entertainment'. We weigh up the value of evidence, we lend weight to arguments with facts, and our opinions carry weight if we wield influence and authority. These are more than just quirks of language - they reflect real links that our minds make between weight and importance.
Nils Jostmann from the University of Amsterdam demonstrated the link between weight and importance through a quartet of experiments. In each one, a different set of volunteers held a clipboard that either weighed 1.5 pounds or 2.3 pounds.
The extra 0.8 pounds were enough to make volunteers think that a foreign currency was worth more money. Forty volunteers were asked to guess the conversion rates between euros and six other currencies, indicating their estimate by marking a straight line. Those who held the heavier clipboard valued the currencies more generously, even though a separate questionnaire showed that they felt the same about the euro.
Money, of course, does have its own weight, so for his next trick, Jostmann wanted to stay entirely within the abstract realm. He considered justice - an area that is free of weight but hardly free of importance. Jostmann showed 50 volunteers a scenario where a university committee was denying students the opportunity to voice their opinions on a study grant. It was a potentially weighty issue, but more so to the students who held the heavy clipboard. They felt it was more important that the university listened to the students' opinions.
Jostmann also showed that people are less likely to take matters lightly if they're holding something heavier. In his third task, he asked 49 recruits to rate the mayor of Amsterdam in terms of his competence, likeability, powerlessness, trustworthiness, intelligence, corruption, importance and charisma. They also had to give their opinion about Amsterdam itself - whether it was a great city and how much they enjoyed being in it. The weight of the clipboards didn't affect the evaluations of either the mayor or the city. However, the two sets of scores were more strongly correlated among the volunteers who held the heavier board.
Jostmann thinks that the extra weight made people invest that little bit more mental effort in awarding their scores - hence the more consistent rankings across the mayor- and city-based questions. This result, I feel, is a bit more tenuous. Jostmann argues the case that satisfaction with the mayor is an indirect measure of satisfaction with the city, so the two scores should match to some extent. That seems reasonable, but it hasn't been demonstrated, which makes interpreting the study a bit more difficult.
In the final task, 40 visitors were asked to say whether they agreed with six statements about the construction of a controversial new subway that was big news at the time. The list included three arguments that previous volunteers had deemed as weak (e.g. the building of the subway is a sign of courage to handle large-scale projects) and three arguments that were stronger (e.g. the subway will make the city more accessible).
In all cases, the volunteers agreed more with the strong arguments but especially so if they held the heavier clipboards. This group were also more confident in their opinions and were more likely to be clearly in favour of the subway or against it, rather than dawdling on the fence. Again, the results suggest that under the influence of the weightier board, people make stronger and more polarised judgments, and they do so more confidently.
The effects of the clipboards were small but statistically significant - unlikely to have arisen by chance. The boards didn't affect the moods of the volunteers, and with a weight of just 2.3 pounds, no one felt that the heavier board was actually burdensome to hold.
Instead, Jostmann reasons that the link between weight and importance is rooted in our early childhood experiences, when we rapidly learn that heavy objects require more effort to deal with, not just in terms of strength but planning too. Our brain relies on these concrete physical experiences when it represents more abstract concepts, like importance. The two are then joined, so that physical experiences can affect abstract thought.
This is far from the first study that has supported this "theory of embodied cognition". Jostmann's explanation can also account for why thinking clean thoughts can soften moral judgments and why immoral thoughts trigger a need for physical cleanliness. It's why warming our hands can make us socially warmer, why social exclusion literally feels cold.
Update: Just realised that I've been totally scooped by Vaughan at Mind Hacks. Go over there for another take.
An aside: I love academia. The paper says, "Being hit by a heavy object generally has more profound consequences than being hit by a light object." I will remember this the next time I'm hit by a heavy object. Instead of a primal scream, I will opt for a more dignified, "Lo. I am struck. The consequences are most profound."
Reference: Jostmann, N., Lakens, D., & Schubert, T. (2009). Weight as an Embodiment of Importance Psychological Science DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02426.x
http://scienceblogs.com/notrocketscience/2009/08/holding_heavy_objects_makes_us_see_things_as_more_important.php?utm_source=nytwidget
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